Opa’s Guide to PDX Elections 2024: District 1
The city council races are going to be decided by money, endorsements and random draw. The size of the candidate pool in each district is so large that placement on the ballot is as likely to determine the winners rather than any deliberate consideration of whether these candidates would be good at the job of creating a new functioning city council.
So I’m here to offer my two cents on what I think of the candidates in the 4 districts. I live in district 4, so I’ve spent the most time looking at those candidates. I’ve also had a chance to do a meet the candidates event in district 2. I have done less in districts 3 & 1, but I’m still going to offer my thoughts after reading the voter guide and rose city reform information. I think that is the reasonable baseline for saying I’ve have a somewhat informed opinion for this election.
My goal here is to try and make sense of the 25ish candidates in each district and highlight maybe the 5–10 most viable candidates who also I think have an argument that they would be good at the work of being on city council. In my previous post I identified the following; Collaborative Leadership, Values, Policy experience and focus, as key attributes I’m looking for in candidates.
My method for identifying the most credible candidates is crude.
The first criteria to shorten the list is money raised $10K as a baseline shortens the lists to 10–15 candidates.
My simple second criteria is endorsement by Rene Gonzales & Carmen Rubio. The 2 leading mayoral candidates have endorsed fairly widely in these campaigns and their endorsements provide a signal for conservative (Gonzales) vs Liberal (Rubio). Endorsements from both suggest more political experience and maybe some level of working across both wings of the Portland political spectrum. Endorsements from neither suggest either running as an outsider and/or a lack of political experience. All of these candidates have a range of endorsements that are useful. But this one divide is the simplest. I’ll amend this with information about endorsements from the other current commissioners Mangus Mapps and Dan Ryan when it seems meaningful.
Another way of thinking about this divide is the debate of Portland police vs Portland Street Response. This debate is probably the liveliest one in all the races.
Gonzales and the conservative candidates are leaning heavily on the idea of better support for the police and in general are de-emphasizing Portland Street Response.
Rubio and the more liberal candidates are promoting expanding Portland Street Response and making it a 24/7 program.
The both and neither endorsement groups force us to use other information to get a sense of where they lie in the police vs street response debate.
Below is a graphic from Rose City Reform that helped me decide to use this as a framing tool.
District 1
Information from Rose City Reform
As the historically marginalized area of Portland all the candidates in District 1 are running as change agents. Some have a longer history in government or working with governmental agencies and some are running as complete outsiders. I think the argument for success in achieving results is better with a deeper understanding of how the current system operates.
Over 100k Raised
Steph Routh
Over 50 K Raised
Timur Ender
Candace Avalos
Jamie Dunphy
Terrence Hayes
Loretta Smith
Over 10K Raised
Noah Ernst
Endorsed by Gonzales alone
Terrence Hayes also has Mapps & Ryan’s endorsement
Noah Ernst
Endorsed by Rubio alone
Steph Routh
Timur Ender
Candace Avalos
Endorsed by both Gonzales and Rubio
Loretta Smith also has Mapps & Ryan’s endorsement
Endorsed by Neither
Jamie Dunphy
The Political Insiders
Steph Routh
The most money and a huge swath of endorsements. She is running as a long time community activist who finally wants to work inside the city. I presume not getting Gonzales endorsement was intentional. Also she didn’t include any commissioner endorsements in her voter guide.
Loretta Smith
Former County Commissioner and another huge swath of endorsements. The most extensive experience as an elected official with a very standard looking set of policies focii.
Endorsed by Gonzales alone
Noah Ernst
In other districts I disqualified folks if Gonzales was their only current commissioner endorsement. I really disagree with the law & order focus of his campaign. But in this smaller field for district 1. I’ll point out Ernst is running as a small business owner and is focused on policing a traffic enforcement. I’m just not aligned with his campaign.
Terrence Hayes
Has endorsements from rest of the city commissioners except Rubio. Also a wide range of liberal organizations along with the police and fire fighters unions. Running as a community organizer who has a lived experience impacted by gun violence. I can see an argument that he brings a better breadth to the public safety discussion.
Endorsed by Rubio alone
Timur Ender
Works in county government on policy development. Has a huge swath of endorsements from liberal organizations and elected officials. Has general nice policy statements .
Candace Avalos
Works in environmental justice organizations running as a young person stepping into leadership with a huge swath of endorsements Has general nice policy statements.
Endorsed by none of the current commissioners
Jamie Dunphy
Worked for Jeff Merkley and Nick Fish as a policy director. Running on being a voice for East Portland. Has a number of labor endorsements and elected officials, no current commissioners. Running as outsider to Portland city politics but knowledgeable about policy.
District 1 has by far the smallest set of candidates who have raised over 10K for their campaigns. Which likely speaks to the areas historic marginalization politically. I think that makes a case for looking for candidates who are most likely able to relatively quickly find their voice and create power in the new city council
I’d rank these
1. Steph Routh
2. Loretta Smith
3. Terrence Hayes
4. Candace Avalos
5. Timur Ender
6. Jamie Dunphy
I wouldn’t rank Noah Ernst.
