Opa’s Guide to PDX Elections 2024: District 2
The city council races are going to be decided by money, endorsements and random draw. The size of the candidate pool in each district is so large that placement on the ballot is as likely to determine the winners rather than any deliberate consideration of whether these candidates would be good at the job of creating a new functioning city council.
So I’m here to offer my two cents on what I think of the candidates in the 4 districts. I live in district 4, so I’ve spent the most time looking at those candidates. I’ve also had a chance to do a meet the candidates event in district 2. I have done less in districts 3 & 1, but I’m still going to offer my thoughts after reading the voter guide and rose city reform information. I think that is the reasonable baseline for saying I’ve have a somewhat informed opinion for this election.
My goal here is to try and make sense of the 25ish candidates in each district and highlight maybe the 5–10 most viable candidates who also I think have an argument that they would be good at the work of being on city council. In my previous post I identified the following; Collaborative Leadership, Values, Policy experience and focus, as key attributes I’m looking for in candidates.
My method for identifying the most credible candidates is crude.
The first criteria to shorten the list is money raised $10K as a baseline shortens the lists to 10–15 candidates.
My simple second criteria is endorsement by Rene Gonzales & Carmen Rubio. The 2 leading mayoral candidates have endorsed fairly widely in these campaigns and their endorsements provide a signal for conservative (Gonzales) vs Liberal (Rubio). Endorsements from both suggest more political experience and maybe some level of working across both wings of the Portland political spectrum. Endorsements from neither suggest either running as an outsider and/or a lack of political experience. All of these candidates have a range of endorsements that are useful. But this one divide is the simplest. I’ll amend this with information about endorsements from the other current commissioners Mangus Mapps and Dan Ryan when it seems meaningful.
Another way of thinking about this divide is the debate of Portland police vs Portland Street Response. This debate is probably the liveliest one in all the races.
Gonzales and the conservative candidates are leaning heavily on the idea of better support for the police and in general are de-emphasizing Portland Street Response.
Rubio and the more liberal candidates are promoting expanding Portland Street Response and making it a 24/7 program.
The both and neither endorsement groups force us to use other information to get a sense of where they lie in the police vs street response debate.
Below is a graphic from Rose City Reform that helped me decide to use this as a framing tool.
District 2 Candidates
Information from Rose City Reform
Over 100K Raised
Dan Ryan
Tiffani Penson
Mariah Hudson
Over 50 K Raised
Jonathan Tasani
Mike Marshall
Nat West
Marnie Glickman
Elana Pirtle-Guiney
Bob Simril
James Armstrong
Nabil Zaghloul
Michelle Depass
Over 10K Raised
Debbie Kitchin
Sander Kanal
Jennifer Park
William Mespelt
Chris Olson
Laura Streib
Wow 18 candidates, that’s a lot of money.
Looking at the Gonzales/Rubio Endorsement split
Endorsed by Gonzales alone:
Mariah Hudson (Also endorsed by Mapps)
Bob Simril
Endorsed by Rubio alone
Mike Marshall (also endorsed by Mapps)
Marnie Glickman
Elana Pringle-Guiney
James Armstrong
Michelle Depass
Debbie Kitchin
Sameer Kanal
Endorsed by both
Dan Ryan
Tiffani Penson
Endorsed by Neither
Jonathan Tasini
Nat West
Nabil Zaghoul
Jennifer Park
William Mespelt
Chris Olson
Laura Streib
I’m going to simplify this here based on these criteria because 18 is too many folks. First as in other districts I find a sole endorsement from Gonzales largely disqualifying because I think his campaign is focused on fear and policing as the key policy to support. So I won’t further consider Bob Simril.
Just for this district because there are so many people I am also going to take the folks who raised less than 50K William Mespelt and Laura Streib have only 1 advocacy organization endorsement and that isn’t enough strength for me to further consider their candidacy.
So we’re down to 15 candidates
I’m going to group these because it’s still a lot
Political Insiders: Big Money and endorsed by both Gonzales and Rubio
Dan Ryan
The only current commissioner running for city council Dan is the status quo candidate, whether he wants to be or not. He brings institutional knowledge and a reputation, that he promotes, for being his own decision maker. He was the key governance person in creating the safe rest villages, that have been overall a success and also took twice as long as originally planned.
Tiffani Penson
Current city employee and obviously well connected politically based on funding and the huge swath of endorsements. I think her background suggests a lot of skills for working on board. Her platform is nebulous.
Political Insiders 2: Big Money and Gonzales with Mapps endorsement
Mariah Hudson
I think it’s interesting that she has found her own lane in a very crowded race, I don’t think she can argue that she’s super well aligned with her district. And It’s not a lane I’d tend to support. Her endorsements are heavily on elected folks with some labor and big business groups as well. Not into the social justice or environmental organizations. Her background suggests a good skill set for council work.
Liberal Newer Politicos: Financial Support and Rubio endorsement
This is a group that seems to match District 2. Seven candidates looking to show that they are liberal and know how to work the political system.
Mike Marshall
Running based on his work in recovery, having personally gone through it and now leading a recovery organization. Brings that singular focus to the table and skills that suggest he’d be good working within the city council group. I generally am not a big supporter of bringing single issue folks into a position that touches so many issues. But in Portland right now if I pick one issue this would be it, I don’t think the city has a good game plan around addiction issues.
Marnie Glickman
Long time political activist and staffer. Has a huge swath of endorsements Her campaign leans into supporting Portland street response and homeless services. Her resume suggests she’d bring a good skill set. Safe choice but she’s lost in this crowd to some extent.
Elana Pirtle-Guiney
Long time political activist and staffer. Another huge swath of endorsements. Her campaign is focused on livability through support Portland Street Response and housing initiatives. She also makes space to speak about good governance and constituent engagement, which is an issue I love and haven’t seen brought forward often. Definitely in my top group.
James Armstrong
Running as a small business owner and also a forensic accountant. I think the combination is interesting. His endorsement list is small and couple business organizations and elected officials. Running as an outsider bringing new ideas and a focus on small business. I agree that small business are crucial to Portland. Not convinced he’s the right person but interesting.
Michelle Depass
Former PPS School Board Chair, Political insider with lots of endorsements. She failed to sign her voter guide submission and isn’t in the voter guide. In this crowded a field she’s not getting elected. Oops.
Debbie Kitchin
One of the commissioners on the charter reform board that finally helped modernize our governance. A small band of endorsements and limited fund raising along with her nice liberal policy statements doesn’t let her stand out in this crowd.
Sameer Kanal
City Employee running for office. He is a community engagement proponent and running on community engaged policing along with Portland Street Response as a way to create safer communities. He has a huge swath of liberal organization endorsements. I think he has found a way to stand out in this crowd.
Running as Outsiders (without current commissioner endorsements)
This is the catch all group,
Jonathan Tasani
Labor organizer and advocate, running on affordability issues and a $25 minimum wage. Has the most labor endorsements and not a lot else. I don’t think he’s found the most crucial issue.
Nat West
Running as a successful small business owner who now drives a bus for tri-met. He wants to fix Portland’s regulatory burden on creating small businesses and improving public services and transit. He has a pretty wide swath of liberal endorsements, environmental social justice and liberal political organizations. If you want to support a small business focus on the council he’d be my choice.
Nabil Zaghoul
Running as a bilingual community based organizations supporter. He has a small group of elected official endorsements and not a lot of depth otherwise.
Jennifer Park
Running as a younger person stepping into leadership. She has a number of liberal social justice organization endorsements. Nice policy statements.
Chris Olson
Similar to Jennifer Park, many of the same endorsements. A more robust policy statement on supporting efforts to improve services to the homeless population.
This district has a wealth of options.
I personally would lean into the Rubio endorsed group and I’m also interested in Nat West from the outsiders and Tiffani Penson from the political insiders. Among those 9 I would rank them
1. Elana Pirtle-Guiney
2. Mike Marshall
3. Sameer Kanal
4. Marnie Glickman
5. Nat West
6. Tiffani Penson
7. James Armstrong
8. Debbie Kitchin
9. Michelle Depass
Which leaves out, in order:
Dan Ryan
Chris Olson
Jennifer Park
Jonathan Tasani
Nabil Zaghoul
Mariah Hudson